tribalwitness.com

The Gadabuursi Manifesto

Dr. Abdishakur Jowhar

abdijowhar@yahoo.com

January 2007

Prelude

2006 has been a particularly difficult year for Somaliland. The nation barely held together against the onslaught of the religious right only to face a fresh challenge from the petty dictatorships that plaques the African continent. The punches keep coming. The year ended with freedom in chains and with the Editor and the Publisher of Haatuf (the central defenders of the nation) behind bars. But the nation keeps standing, swaying gracefully with each strike. In these dire circumstances the Gadabuursi comes to the aid of the nation and offers guidance to its president.

Let the obvious be stated. The election of President Dahir Riyaale Kahin was a magnanimous act of national healing and a symbol of national maturity. And for the Gadabuursi it was also a joyous moment of coming in from the cold fringes of political wilderness to its very center. President Riyaale became the very first member of the tribe to carry such a lofty title, at least in the modern history of the Somali people. We bristled with pride. We were ecstatic with his delivery of three elections in rapid succession for the benefit of the nation; elections that were judged free and fair by impartial observers. This surely was a feat that has eluded many of the brightest minds of Africa’s political elite and here was one humble Gadabuursi who could deliver it for his nation. We sang his praises and pointed out for all who had eyes to see; look for the grace of God; there goes a righteous Gadabuursi.

These were the golden days, many moons ago, before the tide turned, before corruption found a home in the palace, way before freedom found itself behind bars. At this critical moment the Gadabuursi tribe comes to terms with the moral responsibly of taking an ethical stand when its own son falters, when the line between right and wrong blurs. Silence in this circumstance will be tantamount to a criminal act. In this Manifesto the tribe speaks so that the nation can live out its ideals of peace, modernity and democracy.

The Manifesto

1. On the Myth of the Tribal President
   

The Gadabuursi tribe is fully aware its fortunes will rise and fall with those of all the people in this nation. The tribe will prosper if the nation finds prosperity. The tribe will have peace if there is peace in the nation. The tribe will have justice if justice prevails in the nation’s courts. And the tribe will suffer injustice, starvation, pestilence, war and death if the nation falls apart. It is that simple and the tribe understands it.

A president serves a state, a nation not a tribe or a clan. The very term tribal president is an oxymoron. It is a myth that has sucked the life out of all Somali societies; it is a monster that we must slay if Somalis are to survive as people. For the Gadabuursi and for the nation the 20-mile heartbreak road between Dilla and Borama should serve as a living testimony for the impotence of the concept of a tribal presidency that lives only in the sickness of the tribal mind.

The Gadabuursi tribe enters into a covenant with the nation that it will not allow this President (the son of the tribe) to appeal overtly or covertly to the primitive irrational tribal instinct to hijack national justice, to cover up corrupt practices or to curb the freedom of the citizens of the nation. The tribe will not allow this president to do to it what Siyad Barre did to the Mareexaan, to the Somali nation and ultimately to his own family.
The Gadabuursi have no desire for national suicide; no appetite for the rule of a despot and the death of a nation.

Let there be peace for every citizen, justice for every citizen, prosperity for every citizen.

(II) On Reform, Revolution and the Problem President

We live in a formative era. Our nation, the nation of Somaliland, and its social order of democratic dispensation, are under constant threat. We barely survived a voracious revolutionary movement just to be faced by the nightmare in the making that has replaced it. Both threats were born out of the frustration of millions of our brothers in South Somalia and both have shaken Somaliland to the core. Because, and this is important, because the Somaliland system of governance as it evolved under the leadership of president Riyaale in the past few years has weakened the nation like a pillar consumed by termites (sidii UDUB Xar Galay), because the weakened body politic has become too susceptible to adverse encounters of any type.

The mis-government of the nation has turned it into seething pool of explosive conflict, and a breeding ground for revolutionary zest. For those who don’t know already a revolution is not the same as a raid from Somalia or Ethiopia. This may happen but it will be an invasion not a revolution. Somaliland united (any nation united) can stand up to any invasion however mighty. A revolution is a different story altogether. By its very definition it is a radical and violent social experiment. Blood is its normal currency, the blood of those who rule first and that of the ruled later when the violence is institutionalized. A revolution is an internal construct, a homemade product; it cannot be imported or exported. It originates, grows and explodes within the body of a nation. The system in Somaliland is pregnant with revolution and dangerously close to eruption. The drumbeat of the impending revolt is deafening. And the president is deaf. To speak plainly the president is oblivious. To speak plainly the president has become the problem of the nation.

So the tribe warns its wayward son. This is no exaggerated prophecy of doom. Power imposes a peculiar blindness on those who come to possess it. Nicolae Ceausescu and his wife Elena met their end in surprise in the hands of bloodthirsty revolutionaries. Mussolini and his wife met a similar fate in Piazzale Loretto in Milan. They never saw it coming. Siyad Barre had to be smuggled out of Villa Somalia in the middle of a dark night to end his days in the misery of exile. Be forewarned son of the tribe. Be thus advised.

And the tribe also bears good news for its son: Reform. Serious reform will heal the president, and the presidency. It will rescue the nation from the edge of the precipice. Serious reform is the effective antidote to the revolution. And this here, this manifesto is guide to reform. Burying the presidential head in sand like an ostrich would not do the job, futile attempts of placing truth in prison will not do the trick and would surely end up being counter productive. The unjust and vengeful incarceration of Gaboobe, the Nelson Mandela of Somaliland and his colleagues will be nothing but the last straw that will break the back of this presidency. The tribe counsels its son to get the courage of confronting his blunders.

The tribe is wise to this: What has been said so far is not what the President is hearing from the court jesters and carpet beggars that surround him. The main job of these parasitic hangers-on is to soothe the presidential ego, stoke his grandiosity and gloss over the errors of his ways. They do that because that is how they feed. They have to keep the tap running. They are not friends of the President. They are friends of the president’s pocket. They are the curse on the African Presidency. And they always manage to disappear on a president the day after.

And the tribe tells its son: Fear not Aweys. Fear not the Aweys inspired. Fear not Yusuf and the memories of the Las. Fear only the intransigence of the human soul that prevents critical self examination. Fear your court jesters and your carpet beggars. Fear your ego, your grandiosity and your inflating sense of entitlement. Fear the enemy within!

III)    On Corruption

Africa is a continent with the highest rate of corruption and worst health and quality of life indices in the world. Africa loses $150bn to corruption each year. That is 6 times more than the sum total of all the developmental assistance it receives. There are international network of criminal lawyers, Mafiosi, front companies and family members who “assist” Africa’s Robber Presidents to devastate the economy and hope of the continent. Somaliland is no different from the rest of Africa. Indeed here corruption has a semi official status with Government ministers openly justifying it as a necessary evil. Every Somalilander has experienced horror stories of corruption at a personal level. Indeed corruption at the local, regional and national levels has reached a level that is no longer compatible with a functioning state apparatus.

Corruption kills. Every $100 misappropriated steals the life of 10 children who would prematurely die of diarrhea that could have been effectively treated with less than $10 per child. Corruption is more about indirect murder than it is about theft. Every $100 stolen condemns 10 children to a life time of illiteracy and darkness. Corruption glorifies theft and makes mockery of decency and hard work. It destroys the dignity, honor and moral fiber of the nation.

Corruption lives in secrecy and thrives in darkness of the night. Public exposure is the most effective tool a nation can deploy against the corrupt. Oppression, intimidation and even assassination of those who expose the looting are integral to the process of robbing the national purse of a population already half starving to death. The Gadabuursi tribe takes the stand that corruption is equal to theft; equal to murder of the soul of a nation; corruption is equal to shame and disgrace. The tribe calls the nation to banish this evil from its midst.

The tribe speaks truth to its son: Mr. President you have reached the proverbial fork in the road. The times are forcing upon you choices that you can not avoid. We believe that you are being ill advised by your carpet beggars of every tribe whose feeding tubes are illicitly bleeding the national purse to bankruptcy. So we, the moral majority of the tribe, give you realistic alternative options out of love, kinship and respect. The choice of course is yours and so are the consequences.

1. Choose to be accountable and transparent. Open your private books for public scrutiny. Show the nation what you earned and how you earned it. Expect such a level of transparency and accountability from your ministers and other appointed high officials. Practice the politics of honesty and dignity and you will win over the public. Keep in mind this is the code of ethics that prevails among all democratic societies in the world. This is the Gadabuursi way of leadership, the way of Ali Hussein. We want to hear again the beautiful verse “Daacadi Ninkeedi Dishay …Daawo Gadabuursi”
   
2. Un-choose the worn out road of incarcerating those who dare to speak. Such a route leads to no where. It is a counterproductive route for it says to the nation at large “look I am hiding something sinister”. It serves as an admission of guilt in the public eye. It is the preferred route for tin pot dictators. It is a direct encouragement to the really corrupt to go wild on the public purse with impunity. It is a Un-Gadabuursi route. Abandon this route of the corrupt lest you be tainted by it. The tribe prays for you to be blessed with the courage of owning up to your faults and the wisdom of self correction.
   
3. No one is above the law. Neither press nor president. That is the beauty of the concept of equality under the law. And so for redress of your personal grievances against members of the media follow the laws of the land. Seek justice as clearly detailed in the press law. Trample not on the laws that you swore to uphold in search of personal or familial vindication.
   

IV)     On Freedom of the Press

The central crisis we face today is not about corruption. It is about the constitution. The Somaliland state has clearly refused to abide by the laws of the nation. It has summarily and unceremoniously set aside the constitutional guarantee of freedom of speech and free press. It has arbitrarily arrested journalists. By its actions it has nullified central aspects of the constitution at its whim. We are threatened with a situation, once again, where the nation is at risk of falling under the whim of one man. There is no way to sugar coat these facts.

The constitutional crisis is of such a central importance to the existence of the nation that it is no longer President Riyaale’s lone responsibility to resolve. The house and Guurti must take it on to the exclusion of everything else. The three political parties must do nothing else, work on nothing else and think of nothing else until the law of the land is upheld, until the journalists of the nation can work freely without fear of arbitrary arrest and incarceration. Let it be known to all and sundry. We have to exist as a nation of free people before we can fight corruption or poverty or ignorance or intolerance. It is our freedom that is under immediate threat. All of us are prisoners-in-waiting. We might not be behind bars as yet, but we are not free as long as the three heroes of the nation Gaboobe, Dini and Mohamed Omer Sheikh remain in the dungeons of the state.

The Gadabuursi urges the nation to engage itself in the defense of its constitution, its freedom and its heroic journalists. Freedom is indivisible. Freedom is non tribal; it is an urgent national cause. We appeal to nation to defend its freedom for without it nationhood becomes devoid of soul and substance.

1. On Freedom of the Airwaves
   

The tribe reminds the nation that free radio stations are prohibited in Somaliland. In a society with an illiteracy rate of 80% the abolition of Radio services, the only means of communication that does not require reading, is equivalent to the abolition of free speech. This offensive misappropriation of the national will was implemented with a ministerial edict in 2002 in the early days of Riyaale’s administration. It slipped below the radar of public awareness and it started the nation on the slippery slope of one man monologues and one man rule. We should have fought back then, for it is the reason why we find ourselves today fighting a battle for our freedom to speak, once again. It is not too late yet, it is never too late. We have won over more formidable foes. We will prevail this time too.

In an August 2006 interview with BBC Somali service President Riyaale openly defended his refusal to allow free radio stations in Somaliland. The president cited the horrific role the private radio station Radio Télévision Libre des Mille Collines (RTLM) played in the Rwandan Genocide of 1994. The president used this as justification for his decision to prohibit free Radio stations in Somaliland. It appears that the great and kind president is determined to prevent Somaliland tribes from massacring each other like the Hutu and Tutsi of Rwanda. True RTLM was a private radio station. It systematically laid the ground work for mass murder of close to a million men, women and children of the Tutsi and moderate Hutu of Rwanda. The radio was a symbol of evil and no radio like it should ever be allowed into the airwaves of any nation.

Here is what the president did not tell the public: Radio Mille Collines (RTLM) was launched in 1993, backed by family members of the Hutu President Juvenal Habyarimana. It was “privately” owned by members close to the government. It broadcasted its hate message using government owned equipment of Radio Rwanda. It broadcasted nothing but government propaganda. The government of Rwanda used this radio station to prepare the ground for the genocide of the Tutsi. In all but name the RTLM was, like radio Hargaysa, the property of the government of the day and its propaganda mouthpiece. President Riyaale’s justification for the prohibition of free speech in the airwaves of Somaliland is therefore only half true. Half-truths are worse and much more deceptive than outright lies.

The tribe calls to the nation’s attention that genocide is a totalitarian byproduct, managed, orchestrated and achieved through a monopoly on the word. The prohibition on the freedom of the airwaves represents the biggest threat to the security, peace and safety of the nation. We assume the kind president who is intent upon preventing tribal massacres knows this too. The deception must therefore serve some other purpose; the purpose that has defeated the African state, the purpose of holding on to power at any cost.

Let us keep our eyes on the prize. The historic challenge facing us today is to ensure freedom of speech in all its forms for ourselves and for our progeny. Let us push back against the forces of oppression and opportunism. Let us snatch victory from the darkness of the moment. Rest not until the evil monopoly of the state on the airwaves is defeated. To paraphrase the American motto; Let us live free or die trying!

NB The Gadabuursi Manifesto is penned by Dr. Jowhar. It is however the product of collective tribal enterprise. The document represents the silent majority of Gadabuursi opinion both inside the country and in Diaspora. It is an attempt to recruit tribal culture for sustaining life and liberty of all and preventing it from continuing to remain a hiding place for the evil, the corrupt, the opportunist, the hate monger and the murderer. The manifesto is meant to be a blue print for all Somali tribes. Dr. Jowhar and the silent partners he consulted in preparing the Manifesto belong to the Gadabuursi tribe. The decision is to speak truth to power; truth to President Riyaale who also belongs to the same tribe.

Faysal Ali Warabe is fast becoming the most indispensable leader in the Somaliland Political scene today. This week Hargaysa, the capital of Somaliland, erupted into a violent riot. The police confronted the unarmed demonstrators with unnecessary and counter productive force. Two members of the demonstrating public were shot dead. Many more were injuried. And the public revolt escalated as people barricaded the streets, blocked all traffic and started running battles with the police. the government of the days cowered down in shell shock. They were unable to lead to explain, unable lead and unable to act. Like a deer caught in the headlights of oncoming traffic they froze into inaction. Kulmiye Party of Somlailand and his leadership made the appropriate speeches, took the appropriate and civilized position on the matter and appropriately condemned the government of the day and its folly.

On the other hand Faysal Ali Waraabe the leader of the UCID party of Somaliland sprang into action. Faysal hit the streets, spoke in the mosques, in public squares and in private meeting with formal and informal leaders of the people. Over a period of 24 hours Faysal singlehandedly dismantled the barricades and lead the people to civilized non violent protest. He resolved the people’s grievances with the state. He acted decisively when the times called for it. He maintained law and order. He found a way out for the people to express their dissatisfaction while at the same time preventing destruction and preserving peace. Faysal met the challenge of leadership when the going got tough. And the people of Hargaysa rewarded him with adoration and love. A courageous leader is born for Somaliland .

On July 6, 2008 violent demonstrations broke out in Hargaysa the capital of Somaliland. The revolt was circumscribed in area; to one part of the city. It remained limited to the south side of the bridge; that crosses over the dry river bed; that divides the city in more ways than one. Such geographical limitation in the Somali context often has tribal connotations. And so does this one. The revolt was over the increasingly scarce and absolutely necessary human commodity; water. The government seemed to have concluded that a rig working in the area failed to show the presence of water. They informed no one about their progress or the results of the digging or their thoughts, hopes and conclusions. And in the arrogance of those in power they ordered the rig to be moved to another part of the country. The people heard a different story altogether. According to the masses, the water was so close to be reached and the technical concerns that prevented progress were just about to be resolved; but the rig was being moved for more sinister motives that had more to do with tribal favoritism. The resulting anger and betrayal exploded into the streets of the peaceful city. Here is a picture of the riot complete with stone throwing, mob action and tire burning. The riot is the result of the arrogance of the state, its obsession with secrecy and centralization of power. And it also about its failure to quench the thirst of the population, to consult them, to keep them informed.

Most unfortunately the riot is the direct result of the Somaliland president’s increasing dependence on tribal manipulation as a mechanism of maintaining power at the clear expense of national cohesion and the strengthening of the Somaliland state. Observe with me dear reader the merry celebrations on foot in this picture of the formation of the Hawd Region of Somaliland that was recently instituted in Somaliland by a presidential degree. Of course you know the true story in the picture is not the bright colors of the celebrating people’s clothing but the dying dry grass and the parched lips of the people. The true story is about drought, desertification and drought. The president of the state has decided to bribe each tribe with a made up regional state instead of helping them find a solution to quench their thirst. Instead of leading them to solve real problem he decided, in his presidential wisdom, to buy their loyalty by giving them a name “region”; that will only add to the ever escalating hyperinflation of his bureaucracy and the inevitable increase of their poverty and their thirst. It is all about power for him. It is all about precious water for the rest of the nation! May the people seek to quench their thirst. May the people refuse to be divided, bribed, and bought with false names and false pride. May the people unite against the enemy- thirst!

Abdillahi Afrah (Asparo) was killed in an engagement with the Ethiopian Forces in Somalia. He was a bricklayer, a store owner, a carpenter in Toronto, Canada’s most multicultural city. He was a trustworthy accounts receivable technician. He was a religious man. He felt anomie in his bones. He could not stand the exile status of the Diaspora. So he returned and he evolved into one of the more prominent and moderate religious leaders of Somalia’s brief reign of the Islamic Courts rule. And when the Ethiopians came to help the American clean up the Islamic Courts in a peacekeeping-cum-occupation-cum-Alqaida cleansing operation; Sheikh Aspro did not flee to Asmara or Kenya like many of his fellow leaders. He knew anomie once before. He stayed to fight for his principles and finally on July 1st of 2008 he died for them. And with his death the Somali Problem lost yet another moderate who could have played a role in bringing together the opposing forces of a nation’s most miserable moment in history. The extremists of all sides would continue their wretched preoccupation with murder and mayhem, boat loads of young Somalis would venture out into the wild seas just to end up as human feed for the sharks and descent of whole society into the inferno between life and death would accelerate unabated and  unnoticed…. And on this auspicious day of July 1st, 2008 Asparo’s life on earth came to violent end. Instead of celebrating the birth of a nation there is a mourning for his death and the death of a nation. May peace come soon. May the senseless reign of death come to an end. May we all wake up from the nightmare!

Written by Dr. Abdishakur Jowhar. First published on February 20, 2005 (abdijowhar@yahoo.com)

“And we made from water every living thing; will they (the scientists, the atheists and the agnostics) then not believe?” Holy Qur’an, Sura Anbiyaa (21), Ayat 30. “And Allah has created every animal from water” (Al-Nur[24]:45).

Deconstructing Some Euphuisms

Peace Keeping Force: Unadulterated nonsense. If the warlords are able to disarm peacefully, they will also be able to keep the peace, and there will be no need for a peacekeeping force. If the warlords don’t disarm peacefully then what is required to disarm them is not a peace keeping force, but a robust force which will make peace forcibly and act as the armed security agent of the incipient state until such a time that sufficient national force can be reconstituted. In other words forcibly disarming the warlord will take a war and an army. If that army is from another it will be an Occupation Force by necessity not a Peace Keeping Force. Let us call a spade a spade. Sometimes truth hurts but it always allows for clarity of thought.

IGAD Peace Keeping Force: Complete Orwellian misnomer. Uganda is offering a force of 2200. Kenya is offering none. Sudan, Djibouti and Eritrea are sitting on the fence so far and are likely to contribute only a nominal force, if any, for reasons that will become clear later. The proposed force is therefore an Ethiopian Force.

Ask and ye shall know

Ethiopia has been shy about placing a number on the size of troops it will provide for the “Peace Keeping Force”. Ethiopia has its own strategic rationale for keeping the size of their contribution elusive. We can develop a rough estimate however by considering two numbers. The first number is 1600: that is the length of the Ethiopian Somali border in kilometers. No body will ever know or count the number of Ethiopian troops that will crossed or have already crossed 1600 km of unguarded border in some unmonitored dark corner of the world. The second number is 20,000; the number of troops president Abdillahi Yusuf requested. The Homeless President may be a bad dude but he is by no means a foolish one. And no one can doubt that he knows a thing or two about military and warlord matters; he has worked exclusively in these two fields of endeavor for all of his life.

It is not only the size of Ethiopian force that is not known, the answers to other crucial questions remain shrouded in mystery; what is the mandate of such a force? What will be its rules of engagement? Who sets these rules up? This pacification force, will it be led by Somali officials or by Ethiopian generals? What mechanism will be instituted to prevent abuse of the local population by a poorly disciplined fighting force? Who will be responsible for punishing the individuals in that force who act outside the rules of engagement? Who will determine when it is time for them to leave? If the Occupation Force decides to transform itself to a Colonial Force will Somalis be left with any legally binding recourse to kick them out? If the Occupying Force decides to create its own puppet government in a small town in Somalia that will repeatedly authorize its stay (an age old colonial tactic) will Somalis have a mechanism that can side step such a puppet government, like an internationally organized referendum for independence. Somalis have signed treaties with the European colonialists in the 19^th century. Now Somalis are about to lose their sovereignty once again, for a short time as the proponents of Ethiopian led IGAD force hope and a for a very long time as its opponents fear. Either way is it not wise to conclude an international treaty to safeguard the existence of a Somali nation in the future? Shall we not remember the metaphor of the camel and the tent. Would it not a much better situation if the Somali people ask for UN trusteeship for a limited term instead of calling in an old enemy turned suspect-ally to take over?

Ethiopian Motives

Ethiopia’s commitment to the issue of finding a solution to the Somali crisis is difficult to over state. They have spent time, effort, cash and they have occasionally engaged in intimidation and subterfuge to bring about the election of their man to the Somali presidency. Since his election Ethiopians have made it amply clear their commitment to provide the necessary muscle to force the establishment of their solution on the ground and by force if necessary. This level of commitment should raise a red flag in any healthy mind.

Meles Zenawi, the man who makes all the decisions that matter in Ethiopia, has studied medicine before joining the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) in 1974. He is by no means devoid of benevolence. However no one I know is naïve enough to believe that his determination to resolve the Somali crisis is based on the love and care he harbors for the Somali people. It is important for Somalis to understand Meles Zenawi, his motivation and the context that dictates his behavior.

Meles Zenawi has already committed the cardinal sin of the vast majority of Africa’s rulers. He has allowed himself to be irreversibly fixed to the seat of power. This has condemned him to the futile effort of preserving his power at the expense of the development of an institutionally based state power that can weld together his nation that remains badly fractured by ethnic and linguistic rivalries. One could imagine that his foray into Somali politics represents an externalization of his internal problems and an effort to rally Ethiopians around his rule. And why not, all strong men before him have bought time with such a maneuver. But even though he faces an assortment of armed opposition groups scattered around in his country and threatening mayhem Prime Minster Zenawi is not as yet desperate enough to resort to this last ditch maneuver.

Zenawi presides over a nation of 67 million that has become the poster child of poverty, and whose name has become synonymous with hardship, starvation and shocking statistics. He is aware that some 80% of his population is dependent for their survival upon rain fed agricultural and pastoral subsistence economy. He is also aware that periodic failure of rainfall, which has devastated his nation for centuries, is indeed becoming more frequent driven by global climate changes. Droughts have accelerated from a baseline of one every 15 years a century ago to the current rate of one every 2-5 years. The infamous drought of 1984 was quickly followed by others in 1987, 1991, 93, 99 and in 2004. There is a population explosion on foot as well; with a growth rate of 2.5-3.5% the Ethiopian population is expected to double by the year 2025, and this is happening in era in which there is less and less water to go around. Thirst, water, draught are nightmares that haunted all Ethiopian rulers. And now it has multiplied by several degrees and it has become for them a nightmare that happens at night and during the day as well.

In spite of the centuries old thirst Ethiopia is rich in water resources. Ethiopia’s Lake Tana and its blue Nile is the source of the 80% of the Nile water that reach the great and ancient nation of Egypt. Yet Ethiopia is prevented from extensive utilization of this water by the force of treaties concluded in 1929 between Great Britain and Egypt and between Sudan and Egypt in 1959. The waters that follow from the highlands of Ethiopia have enabled the rise of successive civilizations in the banks of the River Nile and its delta. The life of Egyptians is dependent entirely on the Nile’s water. Egypt is experiencing its own Population explosion. (Growth rate 2.5%, current population 70 million expected to double in 2025) The Egyptians need much more water than ever before. They can tolerate no further decrease in water supplies for that would essentially mean death, and they have repeatedly made it clear they may as well die fighting.

Meles Zenawi knows that all conflicts in Ethiopia, the internal insurgency, his war with Eritrea, the land locking of his nation even his own rebellion against the old order have all been stoked and kept burning at one point or the other by nations down stream to the blue Nile. Indeed the only time the Egyptian made 7.92 mm Rifle (Hakim) was pressed into service was against Ethiopia in the first Somali/Ethiopian war of 1964.

At least in the current environment and in recent history the water argument between Egypt and Ethiopia has been a Zero Sum game. Ethiopians of all political stripes are astounded that they are expected to abide by treaties between Britain and Egypt in which they had absolutely no part. Somalis do understand the Ethiopian’s dilemma. They had experienced a similar problem themselves whereby they are learning to live with the Anglo-Ethiopian treaty of November 29, 1954, a treaty in which they had no part in its negotiation or signature and in which Somali territories of Haud and Reserve Area were given to Ethiopia. But that is old history.

Water Wars

Zenawi is determined to use the Nile water to pull his people out of poverty. He believes that Egypt will prevent his attempts in anyway it can. Recently he expressed the opinion that Egypt may indeed be arming itself for a war in East Africa. (See Addis Tribune Feb 11, 2005). Boutros Boutros Ghali (Former UN Secretary General, former Egyptian Foreign Minster) shares Zenawi’s worries and warns “competition for water resources could provoke wars in Africa and the Middle East” (See BBC Feb 2, 2005).

Meles Zenawi also knows that a direct war on Ethiopia will be highly ineffective, given the distance and all. A much more effective strategy for Egypt is to remain with the old approach of keeping Ethiopians perpetually unhinged by internal and regional conflicts. The Oromo Liberation Front, Ogaden Liberation Front, Eritrean-Ethiopian conflict, Amharic nostalgia, tightening the land lock status and many other levers of destabilization could be tweaked to bring pressure on the Ethiopians and to have some control on their attempts to quench their thirst.

Somalis on their part must come to understand that t is impossible to appreciate Ethiopian motives without considering the problem of thirst. Terms that Somalis need to learn include riparian states, Nile Basin Initiative, the 1929 Anglo-Egyptian Treaty and 1959 Egyptian Sudan treaty.

Such an understanding is important because Somalis whether they like it or not are an integral part of the Nile equation. Zenawi may have indeed reached the conclusion that having his “men” in power in Somalia or at least having a strong hand in the politics of Somalia will be the best protection for his back as he turns around west to drink from the Nile. Egypt and other forces are already players in the field. There will be other moves in this dance. The chessboard is now the disintegrated territory of the defunct republic of Somalia. Expect that the Ethiopian-Eritrea conflict to warm up. Expect that Sudan and Djibouti will sit on their hands (with a lot of encouragement from up north) and that Ethiopia will be left alone holding onto the tar baby. All this is also part of the Nile equation. The players are out there, the field is Somalia and Somali tribes are the chess pieces.

Somali Beneficiaries

Ethiopian intervention in Somali politics will breathe fresh life into the dying fiery brand of Islamic fundamentalism represented by Somalia’s El Itixad El Islami in Somali society. It will transform this group from hand chopping marginality to the absolute center of Somali political power.

Any invasion of Ethiopian forces will awaken the dormant nationalism of Somalis that becomes a factor only when an external enemy is at hand. The forces of nationalism will merge with those of Islamic fundamentalism and breathe fresh legs to the fundamentalist behemoth. Al-itahd is the only political organization that has a national fellowship and infrastructure that reaches beyond the tribe. Al-itihad also has the ideological basis and the secret cell-based structures that can readily fight and succeed in guerilla warfare. This dark force will be able to appeal to powerful imperatives of tribal honor, Jihad and Somali nationalism all at the same time. Little Amirs will crop up in villages and towns and cities and rural areas. Foreign Salafists will pour into the lawless country. You think Abu Musab Al-Zerqawi has prospered under American occupation of Iraq, just watch Al-itihad go after the Ethiopian invasion of Somalia. You just watch.

The warlords are opportunistic predators; they are not driven by an ideological imperative or any deep seated believe system. In other words there is nothing that they would die for. They will yield to a more powerful force after initial resistance of testing the mettle of the opposing power. They will have to feel the pain first before they relent though. One should know that they will sacrifice many foot soldiers and all the civilians necessary but only if their territory of dominance is challenged. The Ethiopian army will stay out of their way when possible, bypass them at other times and give them a choice they cannot refuse when absolutely necessary.

Ethiopian forces are unlikely to pass beyond one or two Somali regions close to their border. Their main objective is to secure a base for building a Somali force under the nominal direction of puppet regime. It will be this Ethiopian sponsored and guided ” Somali force” that will then fight and subdue all other Somalis who oppose Ethiopian dominance. The whole project in Ethiopia’s current thinking will be paid for by others as a loan or grant to a Somali state leaving Ethiopian in a win-win situation. The general principles of Ethiopia’s strategy will coincide with Abdillahi Yussuf’s three pronged plan (see my previous article the Homeless President) and may take few years before the Mogadishu problem is tackled.

Somali tribes are no match for the army of a nation-state. No tribal structure anywhere in the world has been able to withstand the organizational structure of even the weakest state. Tribes could be readily set against each other for relatively mundane matters like revenge, tribal bride, corruption etc. Somali tribes are wild and lawless they are peaceful and complaint with orders whenever faced with state power.

Eventually Ethiopia will be driven out of Somalia. Somalis will remain under a brutal regime of local viscous Amirs or under equally vicious secular Warlords. The water wars will continue. And the Somali territory will remain a proxy field of Nile battles.

From Abdishakur Jowhar

June 9, 2008

The people of Somaliland are not asking for much. All they want in this fateful hour of their nationhood is simply nothing more than free, transparent and legitimate electoral process. This of course is the primary responsibility of the government of the day. And it is also the central mission of the fragile opposition. May Allah (SWT) help them both achieve this lofty goal. The alternative to this is the favorite work of all tribal societies: tribal bloodletting and tribal mayham.

Both the governing party and those in opposition must prepare to ensure the existence of the 3 necessary elements of free election before the elections are held. The day of the elections will be already too late to ensure its fairness and legitimacy; the day after the elections will be too late except mutual blame, mutual pickering, and collective national suicide and merry tribal war dance.

We the populace must learn about the THREE Element of a free and fair elections for the absence of even a single element of them transforms elections into a Stalinist show case:

1. A Truly Independent Electoral Commission backed by credible dispute settlement mechanism (if I am not mistaken the Supreme Court of Somaliland has given up any credibility to function in this role for reasons the public understands clearly and that are beyond the scope of this message).
2. Unequivocal, Unapologetic Free press: Including freedom in the airwaves of the nation; and an independent broadcasting commission that takes full and total control over the national radio and broadcasting service and that is based on the model of the BBC or similar independent news organizations or on the model of the Somaliland Electoral Commission.
3. A Neutral Government Apparatus that is removed completely from the capacity and the temptation of influencing the outcome of the elections to the complete satisfaction of all the political parties in contention.

The test of successful achievement of the elements of a free and fair elections is simple: the consensus of all the political parties that the elements are met

“It’s not the people who vote that count. It’s the people who count the votes.” (Josef Stalin).

Welcome to the world of tribal press. This is the first meeting of the tribe. May it survive and prosper!